The recent global economic growth performance is probably as good as it gets. Only Europe appears capable of experiencing higher growth, but this is seen as merely playing catch-up with the rest of the world. The biggest uncertainty facing growth in the near term is oil prices as the perceived risk of supply interruptions from a diverse range of producers (Nigeria, Iraq and Russia) rises.

However, despite rising oil prices; higher US interest rates; an imminent tightening in fiscal policy and a slowing Chinese economy, the global economy is unlikely to collapse in the near term as US business and consumer confidence remain high.

As far as equities are concerned, the focus will likely be on profit margins. Profit margins are at its highest level in 20 years and workers are expected to demand a greater share of the economic spoils going forward. Productivity growth is also likely to slow while the higher base of profits will undermine corporate earnings growth.

Asian economies remain robust, but signs are showing that trade balances are deteriorating in some countries. It appears that a slowdown in foreign portfolio inflows is starting and this trend could continue until oil prices soften.