| Until China came
along, technological advances meant the world
was using fewer and fewer commodities in manufacturing.
In fact, China has been almost single-handedly
responsible for the reversal in the commodities
bear market that has persisted for almost 20
years, and China now accounts for 30% of world
coal consumption and 40% of steel consumption.
The thing is, commodity prices have been so
low for so long that even recent demand has
not bolstered supply sufficiently. Adding to
capacity will take time because all the easy
ways of increasing supply have already been
implemented, and companies are taking their
time over long-term decisions, concerned that
the additional capacity will come on stream
just when demand drops.
So commodities and mining-company shares, which
have posted sizeable gains over the last two
years, may still be a solid long-term investment.
Another advantage that ‘China-play’
commodity companies have over the manufacturing
or service businesses supplying China is that
commodities like coal and copper are virtually
impossible to counterfeit, and their producers
don’t need to worry about branding or
marketing.
Jim Rogers, a former partner of George Soros,
is still calling a ‘buy’ on commodities
and on China, and he got into the game early
on both counts. And don't forget that India
might take off industrially, too.
Timing is also important. The prices of commodities
(and their producers) are more volatile than
stock markets. Throughout the first half of
this year, the commodities markets worried that
China's overheating economy was in for a hard
landing, which could be disastrous for commodities
companies, having profited from some of the
strongest global demand for resources in decades.
So far, however, fears have generally not been
borne out, and prices have recovered most of
their losses.
In any case, a slight decline in Chinese demand
may help commodities in the long run. According
to Merrill Lynch, some slowing in Chinese demand
could be a good thing, “because high prices
always lead to too much supply being brought
on the market."
Some investors are putting money directly into
commodities, rather than via companies. But
this is risky, even for those willing to track
the prices daily. Futures and commodities are
highly leveraged, very volatile and best left
to professional traders, while the commodities
sector is prone to geopolitical concerns and
worries about disruptions to supply.
|